
مصاحبهی من با روزنامهی دنیای اقتصاد به بهانهی تاثیر ویروس کرونا بر فضای استارتاپی کشور.
رونق یا رکود، دو سرنوشت متفاوت استارتاپها در مواجه با کرونا
در رویکرد استراتژیک به مدیریت کسبوکار هر آنچه خارج از کنترل یا به اصطلاح خارج از محیط سیستم آن را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد در عداد فرصت یا تهدید قرار میگیرد. اینکه آن سیستم یا سازمان فارغ از اندازه یا طولعمرش، چقدر برای آن ورودی یا به اصطلاح پالس به اصطلاح تابآوری داشته باشد است که از این رخداد یک فرصت یا یک تهدید میسازد. کرونا را نیز میتوان در این قاعده گنجاند. کرونا دستکم دو تاثیر عمده در رفتار مصرفکنندگان کالای مصرفی داشته است. اول آنکه باعث افزایش تقاضای برای اقلام مصرفی که درست یا غلط، موجب کاهش احتمال ابتلا به این بیماری است، میشود. دوم آنکه سعی میکنند که کمتر از خانهی خود خارج شده و برخوردهای خود خصوصا در فروشگاههای آجری را حتیالمقدور کاهش دهند. نتیجه این دو ورودی در خردهفروشیهای آجری و آنلاین افزایش تقاضا در برخی اقلام و بتبع بههم زدن عرضه و تقاضای نرمال و اثرشلاقی آن بر زنجیرهی تامین و بعد کاهش سطح مطلوب خدمات خواهد بود. در نگاه سطحی و از منظر کسانی که صنعت خردهفروشی محصولات مصرفی آنلاین را خیلی عمیق نمیشناسند گمان میشود که این افزایش تمایل یک فرصت است اما با توجه به اینکه مهمترین ظرفیت عرضهکنندگان این صنعت که شامل دریافت راحت و ارسال به موقع سفارشات است در کوتاه مدت قابل افزایش نیست این فرصت ظاهری به دو تهدید مبدل شود. تهدید اول اینکه مراجعات به حدی بالا میرود که سایت و اپ که برای سطح مشخصی از مراجعه سامان دیدهاست حتی از پاسخ به همان اندازه محدود نیز ناتوان میشود و مشتریان بالفعل را ناراضی و از سوی دیگر مشتریان بالقوه به دلیل تجربهی بدی که از این مراجعه دارند عطای این مدل خرید را به لقایش ببخشند و هزینهی جذب مجدد آنها را به شدت بالا میبرد. علاوه بر این دو تهدید، تهدید جانبی دیگری نیز اتفاق میافتد. بالارفتن تقاضا در برخی از اقلام موجب میشود که تامین آنها به مشکل بخورد و قیمت آنها بالا رود و از سوی مردم این افزایش قیمتها را از چشم عرضهکننده ببیند.
اما به نظر میرسد که تاثیر کرونا به این زودیها دست از گریبان کسبوکارهای ما برندارد. سال بعد با توجه به شروع ماهمبارک رمضان در اوایل سال و بعد از نوروز و تعطیلی معمول دو هفتهی اول سال همیشه تامین را دچار خلل میکند بیتردید در بهار سال خاصی پیشبینی میشد و ما کوشیده بودیم که خود را برای مدیریت آن آماده کنیم. ورود کرونا که باعث بههم خوردن تقاضا در برخی اقلام شده است از یک سوی و بار زیادی که بر کسبوکار مشابه ما بار شده است از سوی دیگر کمی پیشبینیهای ما را دچار مشکل کرده است. پیشبینی ما این است که اسفند و بهار خاصی را در پیشداریم و برای پاسخ مناسب به آن همهی عزممان را جزم کردهایم و برنامههایمان را بهروز کردهایم. بر این موارد بیافزایید که ما برنامهی توسعهی مهم و بزرگی را نیز همزمان در دست پیگیری داریم و امیدواریم و برای آن در حال تلاشیم که این تداخلات آن را به تعویق نیاندازد.
برای نمونه مهمترین برنامهای که ما در سوپرمارکت اینترنتی اکالا داشتیم در مواجهه با کرونا و حفظ پایداری و تابآوری کسبوکارمان داشتیم در وهله نخست این بود که فرایندها را به گونهای بر اساس دستورات بهداشتی بازتعریف کنیم که در این وضعیت باعث انتشار و شیوع بیشتر بیماری نشویم و از کارکنان خود و مشتریان عزیزمان و مردم به حد وسع محافظت کنیم و این موضوع را به سمع و نظر مردم عزیزمان نیز برسانیم. از سوی دیگر کوشیدیم که در خصوص کالاهای پر تقاضا محدودیت خرید وضع کنیم تا مانع احتکار خانگی آنها شویم و کمی توازن توزیع را برقرار سازیم. سومین برنامهمان این بود که ضمن تامین مناسب اقلام پرتقاضا از تامینکنندگان معتبر، تخفیفات را نیز حتیالمقدور کاهش ندهیم. به صورت موازی پیگیر این موضوع هستیم که بتوانیم کالاهای مرتبط با این فضا را برای پیگیری مسوولیت اجتماعی خود با مشارکت تامینکنندگان در وهله اول تامین کنیم و دوم در توزیع آن عادلانه و منصفانه عمل کنیم. اینکه چقدر در این خصوص موفق بودهایم چیزی است که داوری آن بهتر است توسط مصرفکنندگان عزیز صورت پذیرد.
حقیقتا به دلیل وضعیت آتشنشانی که در این چند روزه بر صنعت و بتبع کسبوکار ما حکمفرما بود امکان رصد این موضوع که در سایر نقاط جهان و خصوصا در کشورهای توسعهیافته چه اتفاقی افتاده است را نداشتم اما مهمترین تشابهی که دیدم افزایش هشت تا نه برابری قیمت ماسک به عنوان یکی از کالاهای شاخص مرتبط با کرونا در آمازون بود. آمازون بزرگترین عرضهکننده اینترنتی کالاهای دیگران یا به اصطلاح مارکتپلِیس در جهان است. این به این معنا نیست که متاسفانه سودجویی و فرصتطلبی از طرف برخی تامینکنندگان وجود ندارد که دارد اما شناسایی مقصر معمولا توسط مصرفکنندگان به دلیل شناخت عرضهکننده به آن منتسب میشود. این هم تهدید دیگری است که این فضا ممکن است به برند و شهرت برخی از عرضهکنندگان وارد کند در حالیکه در وضعیت دو سر باخت قرار دارند. اگر کالا را عرضه نکنند مشتریان ناراضی میشوند و اگر بخواهند با توجه به اقتضای بازار این کار را بکنند محکوم به گرانفروشی و سودجویی و فرصتطلبی میشوند که به راحتی قابل اصلاح نیست.
با توجه به حضور پررنگ دولت در کشور ما، آنقدر که من میفهمم اگر این نهاد بتواند نقش تنظیمکنندگی در بازار و تنشزدایی در محیط را داشته باشد بسیار خوب است. چند روز پیش متاسفانه شاهد انتشار خبر کذبی در خصوص یکی از عرضهکنندگان خوشنام اینترنتی بودیم که در خوشبینانهترین حالت اگر غرضورزانه نبوده باشد در انتشار آن عجله شده است. اما در نظر بگیرید که تاثیر این انتشار در این فضا چه تاثیری در برند و شهرت این عرضهکننده و همصنعتیان آن خواهد داشت و دوم نقش خوبی که این صنعت میتواند در اتفاقات خدای ناکرده مشابه داشته باشد چقدر تحتتاثیر قرار گیرد. در حالیکه بسیاری از استارتاپها به درستی سیاست دورکاری را برای سلامت کارکنان خود را دنبال میکنند در صنعت خردهفروشی آنلاین این امکان نیست و در این شرایط پر استرس مانعنشدن از شایعاتی باعث این اثرات جبران ناپذیری بر صنعت خواهد داشت. نقش دیگری که نهادهای حکومتی میتوانند داشته باشند البته برخورد قاطع و سریع با سودجویان و فرصتطلبان است که قطعا از هر فرصتی برای خود نمدی میدوزند.
و کلام آخر و توصیهی من به همکاران جوان استارتاپیم. استارتاپ و فضای جوانی همواره یک قِران ممیون است و به تعبیری سوخت این فضا همین بلندپروازی و جاهطلبی است. بزرگترین آفت این فضا گاهی این است که گمان میشود میتوان ره صدساله را یک شبه پیمود و ممکن است در اتفاقات شبیه به این جوانان توسعاً دچار اشتباه استراتژیک شوند. به عنوان کسی که از کسبوکارهای بزرگ به یک استارتاپ آمادهام آموختهام که باید به سود در دراز مدت نگاه کرد و سودهای کوتاهمدت، بنزینی هستند و زود بیفروغ میشوند. این شرایط منسلخ از مسوولیت اجتماعی بهترین فرصت برای خوشنامی و جلبرضایت مشتریان است. مشتریان این روزها را و کسانی که با همهی تلاش برای جلب رضایت آنها کوشیدهاند را فراموش نمیکنند. این شرایط بهترین زمان مارکتینگ است و نه البته سودجویی.
پیش از این در دو یادداشت دیگر به کرونا پرداخته بودم:
- از فقر دیگران ثروت نیاندوزید، برایشان کاری کنید!
- کرونا و اقبال مردم به خرید اینترنتی (مصاحبهی دیگر من با هفتهنامهی کسبوکار)
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